Liverpool’s Goals For By Game State

Liverpool have had a pretty good season in 2012/13 under new manager Brendan Rodgers. After a slow start, in part due to a the tough quality of competition faced early doors, Liverpool have been steadily improving in terms of points per game. 

One of the more impressive traits Liverpool have exhibitied under Rodgers is the ability to score goals at a far higher rate than last season (67 in 2012/13 after 36 games compared to just 47 goals in 2011/12). Adding 20 goals year on year is impressive but the game state at which Liverpool has added these extra goals is important. The extra goals Liverpool have scored haven’t come at important points in the game (Close Game State) but instead they have been scored when Liverpool were already winning, and usually, winning heavily.

In short Liverpool at the flat track bullies of the Premier League.

Goals Scored By Game Scenario

Game State Goals For % Total Goals
Losing 13 19.40%
Tied 23 34.33%
Winning 31 46.27%

Not much may leap out at you initially apart form 46.27%!!

 Liverpool’s Goals For when already leading in the fixture is crazy good. 31 ‘winning goals’ is good for 1st in the league and is 3 better than the league’s other great flat track bully Arsenal who have their ‘winning goals’ account for 41% of their total goals.

League Average Goals Scored By Game Scenario

Game State Goals For % Total Goals
Losing 13.4 26.80%
Tied 22.2 44.40%
Winning 14.4 28.80%

Liverpool are very close to league average at scoring goals when losing or tying a fixture but the numbers of goals for when winning is just odd. Or impressive, if you prefer.

Liverpool have scored 15.6 goals more than the league average and this number of goals when already leading is the power force behind their strong, 5th placed +25 goal difference.

Liverpool’s Game State Goal Difference

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We know Liverpool score a big portion of their goals when already leading and this is reflected in their goal difference which I have sliced up for every game state. 

Impressive goal difference at +2 and +3 but Liverpools goal difference at Tied and Close (important) is not that great. 

Liverpool’s Close Game State Goal Difference of +7 is seventh best in the league, 5 goals behind Everton, 12 behind Arsenal and 33 behind Man United. 

Liverpool’s Tied Game State Goal Difference is of +5 is 6th in the league, 4 goals behind Arsenal and 8 behind Man United.

To conclude: Liverpool have scored a very impressive number of goals this term but have scored a big chunk of these goals (20) when already leading by at least 2 goals. For me, scoring when already leading by that margin, against teams who usually realize the game has gone, isn’t all that impressive. 

The ability to score as many goals as Liverpool have is all well and good, but unless Liverpool can add more goals when the game state is important (-1, tied, +1) then they probably won’t improve too much in terms of points and league position. 

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